The change correlates closely to the leaking of the Supreme Court decision of Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which now places abortion in play in elections on the state and national levels.
Republicans have traditionally been on the losing side of the abortion argument, given that most agree with the policy baked into the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision.
In May of 2021, Gallup polls showed Americans’ support for abortion in all or most cases at 80%, while the Pew Research Center finds 59% of adults believe abortion should be legal.
An NPR/PBS poll showed that this year, two-thirds of the American public opposed Roe’s reversal.
That concept was confirmed just last month in a Kansas referendum which surprised many political observers but shouldn’t have. Yes, even conservative Midwesterners (when they got in the polling booth) didn’t want the government removing options in the first trimester.
It’s simply hard to fathom how a party can maintain dominance nationwide promoting ending abortion choice in the early months when the public is seemingly demanding it.
While polls show abortion landing far below inflation as a top issue, one should not underestimate the passion it stirs in voters. Fifty-five percent of Americans said in a post-Dobbs poll that abortion now ranks as an important issue to them in the upcoming election, with 56% opposing the Dobbs decision.
Since Dobbs, money has been flowing into Democratic coffers and advocacy groups such as Planned Parenthood, which will be crucial in generating get-out-the-vote campaigns. Dems are crushing Republicans in money raised, having brought in over $80 million through June after word got out about the court decision.
Important demographics, including single women and independents, are impacted markedly by Dobbs.
Lesser informed voters might not be sold on the fact that the Democrats caused the massive rise in crime (which they indeed did), but it’s very easy to distinguish how your local candidate will vote on an upcoming abortion bill.
A recent AP/NORC poll shows that 60% of Americans want Congress to pass legislation making access to some abortions a national right. Given that 60 votes in the Senate would be needed to effectuate such a change, the Senate races will logically be more impacted by the Dobbs decision, which may explain why Democrat Senate candidates are pulling ahead of their Republican rivals.
Republicans would be wise to strike a compromise position that is in line with the electorate and actually winds up limiting abortions. Just as voters want to maintain choice in the first trimester, only 28% support abortions in the last trimester.
Yet, the Democratic platform continues to espouse the radical view that abortion should be a matter of choice, even as a baby is exiting the birth canal.
The GOP should announce that they will agree not to alter present access in the first trimester if Democrats will support bans in the third.
This isn’t only a wise political move, but it would also wind up actually lessening abortions, which is the ultimate goal of the pro-life movement. Pushing too hard on bans in the first trimester will likely lead to larger Democratic majorities and, thus, more abortions.
Polls show that the public trusts Republicans more than Democrats on important issues such as the economy, the border and crime.
The GOP even shifted public opinion toward their favor on the issue of education, a longtime centerpiece of the Democratic platform.
Still, Republicans have faired very poorly with single women and the younger generation, in large part due to a perception of not being flexible enough on social issues such as gay marriage and abortion (though a majority of even Republicans now are copasetic with the former.)
The average American thinks much more like a Republican than a progressive on most issues. By striking a compromise on the abortion front, Republicans could seal the deal in becoming America’s majority party. But if the GOP is perceived as going gung-ho on first trimester bans, the red tidal wave we were anticipating this November could devolve into a tepid ripple.
Four reasons Republican senators should not support an immigration amnesty
December 21, 2022The Disastrous Omnibus Bill
January 13, 2023Why did the expected Republican Wave end up a a ripple? To paraphrase James Carville: It’s abortion, stupid.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/aug/25/the-gop-won-overturning-roe-but-is-losing-the-abor/
Republican commentators are in a quandary as to why Democrat Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro in a New York swing seat contest for Congress. Or how Democrats are leading in key U.S. Senate races for the midterm election, despite the fact that the country is wallowing in Democratic-caused hyperinflation, open borders and record-breaking crime waves.
The answer?
To paraphrase former Bill Clinton operative James Carville: It’s abortion, stupid. (We can also couple in the impact that multiple Trump investigations have had on distracting the focus from these Democratic liabilities.)
There have been two seminal political moments in the Biden administration that have altered the trajectory of public opinion. The first was the botched Afghanistan withdrawal last August, which combined gross incompetence with horrific policy. The debacle made Mr. Biden look feeble, illogical and out of touch. It marked the end of his honeymoon and a clear dive toward the polling dumpster.
Additional polls followed showing that Americans favored Republicans in generic matchups as to who should run the country. But over the last few months, Democrats have gained ground and now are even ahead by four points in a Politico Morning Consultant poll.
@SteveLevyNY
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